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Law, Strategy, and the Making of the Geneva Conventions:

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Boyd van Dijk is currently an Oxford Martin Fellow at the Changing Global Orders program and Research Associate at Oxford University and an authoritative source on the history of international law. Preparing for War has ebullient reviews in major legal publications such as Just Security and the Journal of Conflict & Security Law as well as receiving a 2023 Certificate of Merit from the American Society of International Law.

Yet the book is also significant beyond the legal community. This is particularly true for lawyers in the national defense establishment who advise strategic-level commanders, instructors at professional military education institutions, and strategists dealing with plans and policy.

Scholars and practitioners alike tend to see the 1949 Geneva Conventions as a legal mechanism for restraining warfare. The Conventions, from this point of view, demonstrate the ability to make war more humane by limiting the kind of brutality that arose during the unprecedented destruction and atrocities of World War II. This foundation myth was promoted by many of the lawyers and diplomats who helped write the Conventions, such as the lead drafter for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC or red Cross), Jean Pictet, who also edited the that organization’s authoritative four-volume Commentary on the Geneva Conventions in the 1950s.

But this idealistic understanding only tells part of the story. Van Dijk argues that the construction of the Geneva Conventions meant “outlawing some forms of inhumanity while tolerating others.”[1] The drafters of the Conventions did hope to limit some wartime violence, but they also sought to use the drafting process to preserve the ability to effectively fight the next war.

Choices over which forms of violence to tolerate were highly politicized. The drafting process consisted of several international conferences beginning in 1947 and culminating with a final diplomatic conference in August 1949, held in Geneva. The result was a series of four treaties that cover the treatment of wounded and sick combatants on land and at sea, the treatment of prisoners of war, and the protection of civilians during wartime. Several Common Articles were incorporated into each of the four treaties. Together, these documents comprise the 1949 Geneva Conventions.

Most histories of the Conventions rely on the official, publicly available drafting record, which is of limited value because it is the product of what each delegation wanted the public to see. To provide deeper, unvarnished insight into national strategies and negotiating positions, van Dijk relies on declassified official documents, private papers, and collections from non-governmental organizations in eleven countries. This breadth of archival evidence allows him to piece together what happened during the drafting of the Conventions from multiple perspectives, resulting in an authoritative and exhaustive source base.

Van Dijk uses this source base to examine the efforts of the five main drafting parties—the Red Cross, United States, United Kingdom, France, and the Soviet Union—to influence the law of war on five key issues: regulation of civil and colonial wars, restrictions on air-nuclear warfare and blockade, protection of civilians and irregular fighters, and enforcement of the Conventions.

The author begins with an introductory chapter on the interwar origins of internal debates in the Red Cross and state interests in revising the Conventions. Van Dijk then devotes a chapter to each of the five key issues mentioned above. Chapter 2 examines the making of the Civilian Convention. France and the Soviet Union supported the Civilian Convention, reflecting their experiences with Nazi occupation, while the United States and Britain resisted expanding civilian protections as endangering their legal authority as occupying powers. The U.S. and UK feared that expanding protections—such as banning the death penalty for spies and saboteurs—would hinder their ability to control civilian populations in occupied territories in future wars. Ultimately, the drafters agreed to a watered-down version of the original civilian protection proposals. In what van Dijk calls a “legally strategic decision,”  drafters chose to sideline the most contentious issues in favor of preserving great power support for the Convention.[2]

The third chapter explores the origins of Common Article 3, which extends legal protections to internal struggles such as civil wars and colonial conflicts. Van Dijk emphasizes the significance of this as the “first binding international legal provision in history that challenged states’ absolute sovereignty in their domestic and colonial affairs for humanitarian purposes.”[3] Legal scholars and practitioners often herald Common Article 3 as a major breakthrough, but van Dijk’s analysis reveals that the drafters only agreed to the article after “tiresome negotiation” and because all the alternative options were “ignored or rejected.”[4] The result was a compromise in which colonial powers such as France and Britain ensured that the article’s language and applicability remained vague while the Red Cross took satisfaction in having extended international law to internal conflicts, even if the specifics remained unclear.

The fourth chapter examines the ambiguous legal status of irregular fighters. Much of the discussion over insurgents and partisans occurred in the context of the Prisoner of War (POW) Convention and the status of captured fighters. While Britain resisted legal restraints to its counterinsurgency campaigns, the French situation was more complicated. France wanted legal protections for its World War II resistance fighters, as the Soviets did for their own partisans, but the French also needed to preserve their own freedom of action reestablishing colonial authority in Indochina. The drafters ultimately settled on a compromise that resulted in some recognition of irregular fighters to “satisfy leaders and constituents at home” in France and the Soviet Union but only extended legal protections to “organized resistance movements” with a military hierarchy and connection to a state belligerent.[5] Consequently, most insurgent movements during the wars of decolonization remained excluded from protection.

Chapter five addresses three forms of violence that van Dijk categorizes as “indiscriminate warfare”—aerial bombing, nuclear warfare, and starvation by blockade.[6] Van Dijk shows how and why the drafters struggled to agree on limits for protecting civilians from these forms of warfare. The absence of legal restraints on bombing (including nuclear bombing) and blockade were due to the British and American delegations, which viewed these methods as key tools for maintaining the post-war balance of power against the Soviet Union. For example, during the negotiations over the Conventions, U.S. delegates leveraged its broad alliance network and effectively used procedural rules to neutralize a Soviet attempt to ban nuclear warfare. The lack of restraints on these forms of indiscriminate warfare preserved the West’s military advantages in the air and at sea against Soviet advantages in land power.

The final chapter addresses the development of mechanisms for enforcing the Conventions. Until the 1949 Geneva Conventions, international law allowed for collective punishments and reprisals, and it had typically relied on states to enforce the rules. From the 1920s onward, international lawyers tried to find other ways to enforce international law beyond relying on states. But the legal question of international enforcement often ran afoul of the political principle of state sovereignty. And this reliance on states continued after World War II due to Western and  Soviet efforts to preserve their independence from international enforcement. This effort by major powers resulted in “a set of common articles that rested heavily on the will of the state,” but the reformers secured prohibitions against the use of past enforcement measures—such as the use of reprisals—that had often led to wartime atrocities. Even today, van Dijk notes, the enforcement of international law “remains the eternal headache of humanitarian law.”[7]

Change and Continuity? #Reviewing Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations

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Notes:

[1] Risa Brooks, “The Paradoxes of Huntingtonian Professionalism,” in Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations. Military Society, Politics and Modern War, ed. Lionel Beehner, Risa Brooks, and Daniel Maurer (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020), 1; Risa Brooks; Paradoxes of Professionalism: Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in the United States. International Security 2020; 44 (4): 7–44. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00374.

[2] Brooks, “The Paradoxes of Huntingtonian Professionalism,” 2.

[3] Brooks, “The Paradoxes of Huntingtonian Professionalism,” 3.

[4] Peter B. White, “Militarized Ministries of Defence? Placing the Military Experience of Secretaries of Defense in Comparative Context,” in ed. Lionel Beehner, Risa Brooks, and Daniel Maurer (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020), 129.

[5] Lionel Beehner and Daniel Maurer, “Introduction,” in Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations. Military Society, Politics and Modern War, ed. by Lionel Beehner, Risa Brooks, and Daniel Maurer (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020), 3.

[6]  Jessica D. Blankshain, “Who has ‘skin in the game’? The Implications of an Operational Reserve for Civil-Military Relations,” in Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations. Military Society, Politics and Modern War, ed. Lionel Beehner, Risa Brooks and Daniel Maurer (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020), 101.

[7] Michael A. Robinson, Lindsay P. Cohn, and Max Z. Margulies, “Dissent and Sensibility: Conflicting Loyalties, Democracy, and Civil-Military Relations,” in Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations. Military Society, Politics and Modern War, ed. Lionel Beehner, Risa Brooks and Daniel Maurer (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020), 63.

[8] Brooks, “The Paradoxes of Huntingtonian Professionalism,” 2.

[9] Robinson, Cohn, and Margulies, “Dissent and Sensibility,” 63-64.

[10] Vincenzo Bove, Mauricio Rivera, and Chiara Ruffa, “Terrorist Violence and Nonviolent Military Involvement in Politics,” European Journal of International Relations 26, No. 1 (202): 263-288; Chiara Ruffa, “Militarization in established democracies? The case of France,” in Security Threats, Militarization and Democratic Control of the Military, ed. Yagil Levy and David Kühn (New York, NY: Lynne Rienner, 2021), 139-160.

[11] Beehner and Maurer, “Introduction,” 4.

[12] Beehner and Maurer, “Introduction,” 10.

[13] Beehner and Maurer, “Introduction,” 11.

[14] Brooks, “The Paradoxes of Huntingtonian Professionalism,” 17-40.

#Reviewing An Army Afire

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An Army Afire begins by describing the crisis conditions the U.S. Army faced amid the Vietnam War. These crises occurred on a global scale. In Vietnam, there were prison riots at Long Binh and an armed standoff between military police and soldiers at Dong Tam. In Germany, there was patrolling of enlisted barracks by armed commissioned and non-commissioned officers. On the homefront there were additional prison riots at Fort Riley, Kansas. Further strife at home included black soldiers refusing to deploy to Chicago during the 1968 Democratic Convention riots. Indeed, there was a litany of racial incidents throughout the military.[1] Bailey’s introduction grabs attention and creates anticipation. 

An Army Afire is contextualized by the broader history of segregation and racism inherent in the ranks of the U.S. Army. The U.S. military, even in times of war, seemed to emphasize segregation more than effectiveness in warfighting. Indeed, during the Second World War, the U.S. military in Great Britain strictly enforced American segregation laws.[2] In An American Uprising, author Kate Werran describes the resulting friction between British and American authorities. Further, Werran examines how African Americans, who composed 10% of the force, constituted 80% of death sentences carried out during the Second World War in Europe and describes how deep seated segregation resulted in riots between white and black units.[3] Racial strife in the ranks was not unique to the Civil Rights Era.  

Going back further, the establishment of bases throughout the American south exhibited racism on larger scales. There are the obvious examples of bases named after confederate leaders such as Bragg, Polk, and Benning, when those leaders betrayed their country, proved to be poor generals in war, and even worse human beings in peace.[4] In her book Homefront: A Military City and the American 20th Century, Catherine Lutz describes how Fort Bragg, established as a training camp in 1918 and named after Braxton Bragg, came into being only through the displacement of black farmers.[5] Lutz further describes how, in the 1950s, off-post business establishments could be blacklisted for price gouging but not for race discrimination.[6] It took over a century to rename Fort Bragg to Fort Liberty.

Bailey’s work continues this scholarship as she describes how the crisis the U.S. Army faced in the late 1960s did not occur in a vacuum. In Asia, the nation was engaged in the Vietnam War. In Europe, American servicemen stood across the Iron Curtain from the Warsaw Pact. On the home front, the military was beginning the transition from a conscripted to an all-volunteer force, and senior leaders understood that racial strife within the force would adversely impact recruiting and retention numbers. This larger context that Bailey outlines highlights how America’s military largely reflects society; in the late 1960s this was no different. America was a powder keg, and it took strong, clear, and sustained leadership to prevent a spark from turning into an inferno.

A feature of Bailey’s work is her insight into institutional innovation. Military innovation is more than changing how a force fights wars. Often, military innovation is about transformation in the institutional force. While the organization of an army might still be platoons, brigades, divisions, and corps, changing the social composition and demographics of the people inside those formations is a form of military innovation. The health, morale, and welfare of those people is paramount in creating and maintaining an effective fighting force.

Bailey describes what it takes to change the culture of large and hierarchical organizations. The foremost change is leadership. Bailey describes how senior military and civilian leaders understood their role in moving from desegregation to racial equality. Bailey points to Defense Secretary Robert McNamara who wielded his office to empower subordinate commanders with the ability to blacklist discriminatory off-post businesses. However, not all leaders embraced change. A military often resembles the nation or society it serves and in the Civil Rights Era there was no shortage of people in society and in government looking to preserve the status quo. From the moment Truman examined desegregating the armed forces, members of Congress looked for other ways to keep the military segregated.[7] These actions ranged from advocating for separate barracks to Senator Carl Vinson calling for the court-martial of commanders who blacklisted establishments.[8]  

The State of Civil-Military Relations

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The Strategy Bridge explores the state of civil-military relations in the United States and beyond for the final quarterly series of 2023. What are the most pressing issues to consider? What overlooked issues may be key to understanding, influencing, and managing the future of civil-military relations? These two-wide ranging questions could be framed in a number of ways, but we envision publishing essays providing our readers with insights into:

  • The historiographical development of scholarship on civil-military relations

  • Contemporary civil-military relations in the United States

  • Trends in contemporary civil-military relations on other continents

  • Short- and long-term indicators and important correlations regarding coups

  • Characteristics of civil-military relations in autocracies, theocracies, democracies, and other governmental forms

  • Insights on civil-military relations in peacetime and wartime (or across the conflict continuum)

  • What it means for military officers to be political and what it means for them to be partisan

  • How the nexus of the people, the state, and the military shape civil-military relations

  • Factors enabling successful civil-military relations and the factors at odds with them

  • Civilian perspectives and responsibilities with respect to civil-military relations, both government (Executive, Congressional, etc.) and civil society 

Submissions should conform to our submission guidelines. They should be concisely written, 1000-2000 words in length (excluding citations), and must include appropriate footnotes formatted consistent with the Chicago Manual of Style. We highly encourage writers to download our submissions template to save time and to ensure that your submission aligns with our editorial requirements.

Submissions should be scoped narrowly enough to make a complete and meaningful argument backed up by compelling evidence. All submissions must be received no later than 21 October 2023. Those submissions selected for publication will be published beginning in December 2023. 

We know our community will have ideas to add to this conversation and we look forward to reading your writing!

The State of Civil-Military Relations

0

The Strategy Bridge explores the state of civil-military relations in the United States and beyond for the final quarterly series of 2023. What are the most pressing issues to consider? What overlooked issues may be key to understanding, influencing, and managing the future of civil-military relations? These two-wide ranging questions could be framed in a number of ways, but we envision publishing essays providing our readers with insights into:

-The historiographical development of scholarship on civil-military relations

-Contemporary civil-military relations in the United States

-Trends in contemporary civil-military relations on other continents

-Short- and long-term indicators and important correlations regarding coups

-Characteristics of civil-military relations in autocracies, theocracies, democracies, and other governmental forms

-Insights on civil-military relations in peacetime and wartime (or across the conflict continuum)

-What it means for military officers to be political and what it means for them to be partisan

-How the nexus of the people, the state, and the military shape civil-military relations

-Factors enabling successful civil-military relations and the factors at odds with them

-Civilian perspectives and responsibilities with respect to civil-military relations, both government (Executive, Congressional, etc.) and civil society 

Submissions should conform to our submission guidelines. They should be concisely written, 1000-2000 words in length (excluding citations), and must include appropriate footnotes formatted consistent with the Chicago Manual of Style. We highly encourage writers to download our submissions template to save time and to ensure that your submission aligns with our editorial requirements.

Submissions should be scoped narrowly enough to make a complete and meaningful argument backed up by compelling evidence. All submissions must be received no later than 21 October 2023. Those submissions selected for publication will be published beginning in December 2023. 

We know our community will have ideas to add to this conversation and we look forward to reading your writing!

Re-Envisioning the Cyber Domain for Deterrence

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The strategy neglects to explain why the United States and like-minded nations face this challenge. The United States invented the Internet and developed the most prominent internet and technology companies—so why does the United States seem overwhelmed by this ephemeral threat?

Cyberspace is often framed inaccurately as an unlimited, incomprehensible domain that confounds rational analysis for policy creation. Cyberspace complexity is similar to the complexity of an ecosystem, yet ecosystems do not engender the same panic-inducing irrationality.[2] Ecosystems express relative stability, whereas the cyber domain remains unstable. Cyberspace complexity continues to grow, with only 64.6% of the world’s population currently internet-connected and annual digital connectivity growth over three times the population growth, 2.9%, and 0.84%, respectively.[3] Establishing stability in cyberspace is the goal, where economic activity progresses without widespread fear of attack and criminals and nefarious state actors alike are held accountable. Eventually, the cyber domain will reach stability, given the action and reaction behavior between the provocateurs and defenders. In the years before natural stability occurs, fortunes of nations will rise and fall, incentivizing the United States, as the current leader in prosperity, to hasten the approach to stability through creative policies.

Policymakers must understand the nature of the cyber domain to innovate policy that hastens stability. Recognizing that cyberspace is neither boundless nor incomprehensible but more akin to the land domain than the sea, air, and space, the landscape of challenges and how governments tackle find better parallels in the land domain. For example, the diversity of threats in the land domain ranges from trespassing and kidnapping to invasion and war crimes. Cyber threats are equally pervasive and segregating cybercrime from cyber-attack and cyber espionage is a necessary component of the division of responsibility and jurisdiction. The remarkable growth in cybercrime necessitates a local enforcement capability to attribute and aid just resolution of this lower-level cyber-attack.[4] The ability for local enforcement to conduct cyber investigations varies significantly across the United States, leaving gaps in protection.

One critical difference between the land and cyber domains is cyber’s rapid evolution. Most police work involves similar crimes conducted under similar methods under similar motives. Even the motivations for Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine stem from a classic geopolitical power struggle, unchanged for millennia. As noted by a cyber security expert at a leading U.S. technology company, the rapid advances in cyber security create an arms race for adversaries to innovate new methods of attack.[5] Often, the most successful attackers are “Advanced Persistent Teenagers,” those raised in an integrated cyber world. These individuals have considerable time to focus on a target to discern and exploit vulnerabilities. While the land domain lends itself toward a hierarchical framework, the rapid evolution in cyberspace advantages a horizontal structure. A flat structure facilitates swift detection and classification of new threats and disseminates threat telemetry quickly without burdensome reviews. The capacity and capability of U.S. adversaries in cyberspace exceeds the U.S. in the former and rapidly approaches equivalency in the latter as described in the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy (NCS):

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) now presents the broadest, most active, and most persistent threat to both government and private sector networks and is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so. Over the last ten years, it has expanded cyber operations beyond intellectual property theft to become our most advanced strategic competitor with the capacity to threaten U.S. interests and dominate emerging technologies critical to global development.[6]

If strategic competition shifts to a great power war, China possesses the manpower advantage in the cyber realm. The United States requires a technical and organizational offset to counter that advantage. Given China’s drastic manpower advantage, the United States needs to invest time, capital, and manpower into building a credible cyber deterrence.

Resilience to Attack

To enhance overall resilience to cyber attacks, the United States should improve cyber system design for security, create a cyber reserve organization to integrate cybersecurity expertise within public and private enterprises, and discourage the formation of “splinter-nets” by allies and partners by listening to legitimate concerns and collaborating for just solutions. 

As identified in the United States 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy, creating inherently secure cyber infrastructure is a national priority.[7] The openness of nascent Internet and software infrastructure benefited from transparency to foster rapid innovation and improvement. However, the volume of wealth traversing cyberspace today requires a security baseline rather than a transparency baseline. Models for inherently secure networks exist, such as the online governance system of Estonia.[8] “E-Estonia,” in establishing zero-trust cyber architecture, instituted a high barrier to data exchange and collection, which prevents many U.S. companies, like Alphabet and Meta, from executing their business strategies. The United States, working with European regulatory partners, should create a zero-trust exchange infrastructure that validates permissions to access data and balances data access for privacy and private industry.

A critical step in zero-trust infrastructure is validating user authenticity. The e-Estonia system utilizes digital keys embedded in their national ID system to allow access to all government sites and many commercial enterprises. Adding a physical key is already commonplace in the U.S. government, where access to the Secret Internet Protocol Routing Network (SIPRNET) used by the Department of Defense and State Department is controlled with a user-issued token, the same size and shape as an ID card. Google’s Titan security key offers another possible physical key solution.[9] While the United States’ cultural history likely precludes adopting a national identification card, the federal government could create a template from which states could adapt. Standardizing the method of physical key implementation will improve understanding and trust in the security tool, as users could maintain the same key for life and start in childhood. Estonia’s financial industry served as an early adopter of digital key log-in. The advantages of reduced fraud saved such significant revenue that the industry incentivized expanded use of key log-in. Once the benefits of zero-trust infrastructure and improved data protection hit the population (like filing taxes in under three minutes!), cultural apprehension will likely dissipate.

Moving beyond the improved system design, creating a cyber reserve force in the United States would provide mutually beneficial technical experience, expertise, and information to private and public enterprises and respond against large-scale cyber-attack. The reserve structure allows experts to continue working in the private sector, benefiting innovation and economic prosperity while organizing a capability to leverage in a crisis. The United States should use tax benefits, access to privileged intelligence, and support of nationwide cyber defense expertise to incentivize the participation of private companies. The “New Social Contract” released by the Office of the National Cyber Director calls for improving the public-private partnership in cyberspace, precisely the purpose of cyber reserves.[10] These cyber reservists should be screened for security clearances to allow access to sensitive threat information. Today, civilian activists play a crucial role in cyber defense, attribution, and offensive cyber in the conflict in Ukraine,[11] the Cyber Defense Unit of Estonia,[12] and North Atlantic Fellows Organization (NAFO)[13] employ civilian volunteers to conduct a range of cyber operations, including identification and countering Russian disinformation and email phishing to identify Russian soldiers accused of war crimes.[14] Incorporating motivated civilians like these and offering additional resources would enhance cyber resilience. A network of experts across the private sector would share threat telemetry faster and remedy vulnerabilities at the speed of relevance.

A more resilient Internet provides little value to the United States if its allies and partners splinter their networks. Privacy concerns associated with significant technology companies scraping data without transparency perpetuate distrust of U.S. companies across the globe and, most significantly, in Europe. Growing calls for the nationalization of data and tighter privacy controls would hamper the development of new advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and cede the advantage to China, whose ruling communist party has no regard for the privacy of its citizens, much less the privacy of foreigners. The United States should value and respect privacy concerns and criticisms from allies and explore shared regulatory action to build commercial trust and accountability. As described in the 2022 National Security Strategy, “We are working closely with allies and partners, such as the Quad, to define standards for critical infrastructure to rapidly improve our cyber resilience, and building collective capabilities to rapidly respond to attacks.”[15] Keeping an open Internet is vital to success in strategic competition and relies on a collaborative approach that integrates concerns of U.S. allies and partners.

Capability to Respond

Concurrently with the adjustments making cyber infrastructure more resilient, the rules-based international order ought to bolster its ability to respond. In meetings with Ministry of Defense delegations in Latvia, Estonia, and Finland and officials across multiple U.S. departments, developing capabilities to respond to cyber-attacks is a lower priority than building resilience and often not worth pursuing. However, adversaries will remain incentivized to continue their onslaught without the ability to inflict punitive action, like USCYBERCOM’s defend forward.[16] Some of this reluctance stems from overreliance on USCYBERCOM’s exceptional capabilities and failure to appreciate the manpower and resource constraints. USCYBERCOM cannot serve as the lone guarantor of the world’s cyberspace. From the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy:

The governments of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other autocratic states with revisionist intent are aggressively using advanced cyber capabilities to pursue objectives that run counter to our interests and broadly accepted international norms. Their reckless disregard for the rule of law and human rights in cyberspace is threatening U.S. national security and economic prosperity.[17]

To build better capability, the United States should leverage offensive cyber capabilities within the Cyber Reserve force discussed earlier and expand tuition and training assistance for cyber-related fields. Cybersecurity experts require years of training and education, contributing to a considerable shortage of trained workforce in both the private and public sectors.[18] Cyber reserves, through an initial training program, could alleviate some of this knowledge deficit and provide an avenue for professional development and subsidize higher certifications. In strategic competition, the cyber forces of the United States are already near capacity to respond to attacks and would likely come under significantly greater assault during a direct conflict with Russia or China.[19]

Cyber reserve personnel should be trained and empowered for limited hack-back techniques. A hack back consists of a counter-attack to negate the gains of the cyber attacker. For example, if a bank witnessed illegal activity diverting funds, a cyber reserve employee could use authorities under the cyber reserves to enter criminal networks and recover the funds. By incentivizing participation in the cyber reserves, an organized network of experts becomes enmeshed across the cyber-attack surface, improving the overall ability of the United States to detect, attribute, and respond to cyber-attacks. Additionally, trends forming in disparate aspects of society, like elementary education and the electric power grid, could coalesce to recognize a broad attack and trigger a federal response. Only through closer coordination and integration between public and private organizations can the defenders out-innovate attackers and raise the expertise threshold necessary to conduct cyber-attack. As responses’ regularity and effectiveness grow, adversaries’ risk calculus shifts. No longer able to attack with impunity, they must now consider the repercussions of each attack. With defenders across the spectrum using the best practices and intelligence, shooting the rain appears within reach.

Another critical aspect of the cyber reserves is the capacity for improved cyber defense during armed conflict between great powers. A recent congressional policy scenario revealed weaknesses and tough choices in protecting U.S. national interests under a hypothetical conflict with China.[20] The team chose to defend critical military networks over day-to-day infrastructure and massive disinformation campaigns, leaving millions of Americans without essential services and under the influence of a Chinese Communist Party information campaign. A 300,000-strong reserve force, comparable to the National Guard, would provide a tremendous boost available to surge capability during a conflict. The breadth of expertise envisioned in the cyber reserves would defend critical infrastructure while supporting an invaluable advantage in every U.S. conflict, allies and partners. Cyber reserve coordination and participation in NATO teams like the Cyber Rapid Reaction team and state teams like France’s Cyber Citizen Reserve strengthens the bonds with NATO allies and partners.[21]

Willingness to Act

The final and most challenging aspect of achieving cyber deterrence is demonstrating the willingness to act. With the ultimate aim of influencing adversary decision-making, the campaign to demonstrate willingness involves domestic and international information operations, execution of a cyber response playbook, and lastly, patience. Deterrence through capability and willingness imposes punishment greater than potential benefits. As detailed in the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS), U.S. adversaries already possess significant capabilities:

The PRC employs state-controlled forces, cyber and space operations, and economic coercion against the United States and its Allies and partners. Russia employs disinformation, cyber, and space operations against the United States and our Allies and partners, and irregular proxy forces in multiple countries.[22]

Russian and Chinese capacity create a tough but surmountable challenge to overcome.

Countering China’s Use of Information Laundering Via Minds and Media

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Notes:

[1] Renée Diresta, Carly Miller, Vanessa Molter, John Pomfret, and Glenn Tiffert, Telling China’s Story: The Chinese Communist Party’s Campaign to Shape Global Narratives, (Stanford, CA: Stanford Digital Repository, 2020), 44, 47, https://doi.org/10.25740/pf306sw8941.

[2] Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 44. See also Craig Timberg and Shane Harris, “Chinese Network of Fake Accounts Targets Trump,” The Washington Post, August 13, 2020, https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/chinese-network-fake-accounts-targets-trump/docview/2433067427/se-2.

[3] Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Michael S. Chase, Borrowing a Boat Out to Sea: The Chinese Military’s Use of Social Media for Influence Operations, (Washington, DC: John Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, 2019), v, https://www.fpi.sais-jhu.edu/borrowing-a-boat-out-to-sea-pdf.

[4] Samantha Korta, “Fake News, Conspiracy Theories, and Lies: An Information Laundering Model for Homeland Security,” Homeland Security Affairs (March 2018): 80, https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/fake-news-conspiracy-theories-lies-information/docview/2206253872/se-2

[5] Ibid.

[6] Korta, “Fake News,” 84.

[7] Korta, “Fake News,” 99.

[8] Noah Arjomand, “Information Laundering and Globalized Media: Part I – The Problem,” Center for International Media Assistance (blog), August 20, 2019, https://www.cima.ned.org/blog/information-laundering-and-globalized-media-part-i-the-problem/.

[9] Korta, “Fake News,” 77.

[10] Korta, “Fake News,” 81.

[11] Cindy Otis, “The Mainstreaming of Conspiracy Theories,” interview by Darragh Worland, Is That A Fact, News Literacy Project, audio transcript, https://newslit.org/podcast/the-mainstreaming-of-conspiracy-theories/.

[12] Sanja Kelly, Mai Truong, Adrian Shahbaz, Madeline Earp, Jessica White, Manipulating Social Media to Undermine Democracy (Washington, DC: Freedom House, 2017), 2, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2017/manipulating-social-media-undermine-democracy.

[13] Korta, “Fake News,” 88-89.

[14] Kelly et al, Manipulating Social Media to Undermine Democracy, 15

[15] Korta, “Fake News,” 62, 73

[16] Elena-Alexandra Dumitru, “Is ‘Letting the Truth Get in the Way of a Good Story’ enough? Journalists’ Perception on Fake News,” Journal of Media Research 14, no. 3 (November 2021): 76, https://www.proquest.com/docview/2615893167.

[17] Vosoughi Soroush, Deb Roy, and Aral Sinan, “The Spread of True and False News Online.” Science 359, no. 6380 (March 2018): 1150, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9559.

[18] Vosoughi Soroush et al, “The Spread of True and False News Online,” 1147, 1149.

[19] Vosoughi Soroush et al, “The Spread of True and False News Online,” 1150.

[20] Kenton Thibaut, Chinese Discourse Power: Ambitions and reality in the digital domain (Washington DC: Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab, 2022), 10, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/chinese-discourse-power-ambitions-and-reality-in-the-digital-domain/.

[21] Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Chase, Borrowing a Boat, 4.

[22] Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Chase, Borrowing a Boat, 9.

[23] Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Chase, Borrowing a Boat, v.

[24] Thibaut, Chinese Discourse Power, 7.

[25] Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 7.

[26] Ross Burley, Analysis of the Pro-China Propaganda Network Targeting International Narratives, (London, UK: Centre for Information Resilience, 2021), 4, 7, https://www.info-res.org/post/revealed-coordinated-attempt-to-push-pro-china-anti-western-narratives-on-social-media., 4,7.

[27] Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Chase, Borrowing a Boat, 27.

[28] Timberg and Harris, “Chinese Network of Fake Accounts Targets Trump.”

[29] Ibid.

[30] Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 44

[31] Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Chase, Borrowing a Boat, 94. See also Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 15.

[32] Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 20.

[33] Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 25

[34] Ibid.

[35] Fergus Ryan, Ariel Bogle, Albert Zhang and Dr Jacob Wallis, #StopXinjiang Rumors: The CCP’s decentralised disinformation campaign, (Barton, Australia: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2021), 6, https://www.aspi.org.au/report/stop-xinjiang-rumors.

[36] Jeff Kao and Mia Shuang Li, “How China Built a Twitter Propaganda Machine Then Let It Loose on Coronavirus,” ProPublica, March 26, 2020, https://www.propublica.org/article/how-china-built-a-twitter-propaganda-machine-then-let-it-loose-on-coronavirus.

[37] Jeff Kao, Raymond Zhong, Paul Mozur, and Aaron Krolik, “How China Spreads Its Propaganda Version of Life for Uyghurs,” ProPublica and New York Times, June 23, 2021, https://www.propublica.org/article/how-china-uses-youtube-and-twitter-to-spread-its-propaganda-version-of-life-for-uyghurs-in-xinjiang.

[38] Ryan et al, #StopXinjiang Rumors, 43

[39] Ryan et al, #StopXinjiang Rumors, 30

[40] Michael R. Pompeo, “Determination of the Secretary of State on Atrocities in Xinjiang,” Department of State, 2021, https://2017-2021.state.gov/determination-of-the-secretary-of-state-on-atrocities-in-xinjiang/index.html.

[41] Zhang et al, Strange Bedfellows, 6.

[42] Fergus Ryan, Daria Impiombato and Hsi-Ting Pai, Frontier influencers: The new face of China’s propaganda, Report No. 65/2022 (Barton, Australia: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2022), 6, 8, https://www.aspi.org.au/report/frontier-influencers.

[43] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 25.

[44] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 3-4

[45] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 36

[46] Ryan et al, #StopXinjiang Rumors, 31

[47] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 11

[48] Zhang et al, Strange Bedfellows, 15

[49] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 33

[50] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 31

[51] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 41. See also Kao et al, “How China Spreads Its Propaganda Version of Life for Uyghurs.”

[52] Thomas Brown, “How China Is Influencing YouTubers into Posting State Propaganda,” Medium, November 16, 2021, https://medium.com/swlh/how-china-is-influencing-youtubers-into-posting-state-propaganda-db72acf18dfa.

[53] Paul Mozur, Raymond Zhong, and Aaron Krolik, “YouTube Influencers are Tools in Beijing’s Propaganda Blitz,” New York Times, December 14, 2021, https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/youtube-influencers-are-tools-beijings-propaganda/docview/2609572913/se-2.

[54] Ibid.

[55] Ibid.

[56] Jason (@JasonLiving in China), “The Xinjiang THEY Don’t Want YOU to see…,” YouTube, March 17, 2023.

[57] Graphika, Ants in a Web, (Graphika: 2021), 3-4, https://graphika.com/reports/ants-in-a-web. See also Jeanne Whalen, Craig Timberg and Eva Dou, “Chinese businessman with links to Steve Bannon is driving force for a sprawling disinformation network, researchers say,” Washington Post, May 17, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/05/17/guo-wengui-disinformation-steve-bannon/.

[58] Dave Davies, “The Inscrutable Aims of Steve Bannon’s Enigmatic Chinese Benefactor,” NPR, October 20, 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/10/20/1130184401/the-inscrutable-aims-of-steve-bannons-enigmatic-chinese-benefactor.

[59] Ibid.

[60] Graphika, Ants in a Web, 5-6

[61] Jonathan Swan and Erica Pandey, “Steve Bannon’s secret contract with a Chinese billionaire,” Axios, October 29, 2019, https://www.axios.com/2019/10/29/steve-bannon-contract-chinese-billionaire-guo-media.

[62] Graphika, Ants in a Web, 22

[63] Graphika, Ants in a Web, 24.

[64] Dan Friedman, ” Exclusive: Leaked Messages Reveal the Origins of the Most Vile Hunter Biden Smear,” Mother Jones, April 7, 2022, https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/04/hunter-biden-laptop-guo-wengui-bannon-giuliani/.

[65] Korta, “Fake News,” 118

[66] Professor Brief to Eisenhower School Seminar on Operations in the Information Environment, “AI and Autonomy,” Stanford University, April 11, 2023.

[67] Nyla Husain, ” On Social Media, Sharing Mindset Makes People Worse at Judging Accuracy,” American Association for the Advancement of Science, August 6, 2021, https://www.aaas.org/news/social-media-sharing-mindset-makes-people-worse-judging-accuracy.

[68] Ibid.

[69] Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 41

[70] Lili Pike, “How China Uses Global Media to Spread Its Views—and Misinformation,” Grid News, May 18, 2022, 2.

[71] Diresta et al, Telling China’s Story, 9. See also Sarah Cook, “Beijing’s Global Megaphone: The Expansion of Chinese Communist Party Media Influence since 2017,” (Washington, DC: Freedom House, 2020), 7, https://freedomhouse.org/report/special-report/2020/beijings-global-megaphone.

[72] Thibaut, Chinese Discourse Power, 7

[73] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 9

[74] Ryan et al, Frontier Influencers, 3

[75] Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Chase, Borrowing a Boat, 101

[76] Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Chase, Borrowing a Boat, 104

[77] Edward Wong, ” U.S. Fights Bioweapons Disinformation Pushed by Russia and China,” The New York Times, March 10, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china-bioweapons.html

[78] Elise Thomas, “QANON goes to China – via Russia,” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, Last Modified March 23, 2022, https://www.isdglobal.org/digital_dispatches/qanon-goes-to-china-via-russia/.

[79] Department of State, Global Engagement Center, Brief to Eisenhower School Seminar on Operations in the Information Environment, March 17, 2023.

Primacy of Maritime Strategy in Naval Shipbuilding? The Case of Imperial Germany

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Notes:

[1] Julian S. Corbett, Some Principles of Maritime Strategy (New York: Longmans, Green and Co., 1918), 93.

[2] Alfred Thayer Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783 (Boston: Little, Brown, and Company, 1898), 7, https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=hvd.32044013659107&view=1up&seq=9.

[3] Andrew S. Erickson and Manfred Meyer, in Modern Chinese Maritime Forces, ed. Larry Bond and Chris Carlson (Admiralty Trilogy Group, 2022), 3; Christopher P. Carlson and Jack Bianchi, “Warfare Drivers: Mission Needs and the Impact on Ship Design,” in Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course, ed. Andrew S. Erickson (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2016), 19.

[4] Benjamin L. Apt, “Mahan’s Forebears: The Debate Over Maritime Strategy, 1868-1883,” Naval War College Review 50, no. 3 (Summer 1997): 105, https://www.jstor.org/stable/44638752.

[5] A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (Washington, DC: United States Marine Corps, United States Dept. of the Navy, United States Coast Guard, 2007).

[6] Dmitry Filipoff, “Secretary John Lehman on Strategic Credibility and Leveraging Command of the Seas,” Center for International Maritime Security, March 22, 2021, https://cimsec.org/secretary-john-lehman-on-strategic-credibility-and-leveraging-command-of-the-seas/.

[7] Irv Blickstein et al., Navy Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution: A Reference Guide for Senior Leaders, Managers, and Action Officers (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2016), 8, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/tools/TL200/TL224/RAND_TL224.pdf; Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year 2023 (Washington, DC: Pentagon, 2022), 10, https://media.defense.gov/2022/Apr/20/2002980535/-1/-1/0/PB23%20SHIPBUILDING%20PLAN%2018%20APR%202022%20FINAL.PDF.

[8] Holger H. Herwig, “Luxury” Fleet: The Imperial German Navy 1888-1918 (London: The Ashfield Press, 1987), 9.

[9] Lawrence Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik: German Sea Power Before the Tirpitz Era (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1997), 108–9.

[10] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 86.

[11] Rolf Hobson, The German School of Naval Thought and the Origins of the Tirpitz Plan 1875 ~ 1900 (Oslo: Institutt for Forsvarsstudier, 1996), 18, https://fhs.brage.unit.no/fhs-xmlui/handle/11250/99521.

[12] Hobson, The German School, 18–19.

[13] As quoted in Hobson, The German School, 21.

[14] Hobson, The German School, 21.

[15] Hobson, The German School, 22.

[16] As quoted in Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 13.

[17] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 13; Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 108.

[18] David H. Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 1856-1888: Forerunners to Tirpitz (New York: Taylor & Francis, 2004), 91.

[19] Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 89, 96.

[20] Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 89, 91.

[21] Ivo Nikolai Lambi, The Navy and German Power Politics, 1862-1914 (Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1984), 5.

[22] Lambi, The Navy, 6.

[23] Lambi, The Navy, 5.

[24] Lambi, The Navy, 6; Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 114.

[25] Lambi, The Navy, 6.

[26] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 143.

[27] Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 99.

[28] Olivier, 106.

[29] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 143, 168.

[30] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 111.

[31] Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 105; Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 111, 114.

[32] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 136.

[33] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 111, 140.

[34] Lawrence Sondhaus, “The Imperial German Navy and Social Democracy, 1878-1897,” German Studies Review 18, no. 1 (February 1995): 52, https://www.jstor.org/stable/1431518.

[35] Sondhaus, 53, 55.

[36] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 153.

[37] As quoted in Lambi, The Navy, 6.

[38] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 172.

[39] Arne Røksund, The Jeune École: The Strategy of the Weak (Boston: Brill, 2007), 1, 6, https://doi.org/10.1163/ej.9789004157231.i-242.

[40] As quoted in Røksund, 3.

[41] Røksund, x–xi, 7; Lawrence Sondhaus, Naval Warfare, 1815-1914 (New York: Taylor and Francis, 2012), 142, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203132234.

[42] As quoted in Røksund, 8.

[43] Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 145, 147.

[44] As quoted in Lambi, The Navy, 10.

[45] Lambi, The Navy, 7.

[46] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 180; Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 26.

[47] As quoted in Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 147.

[48] Lambi, The Navy, 9; Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 166.

[49] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 165, 168.

[50] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 164, 166.

[51] Lambi, The Navy, 9.

[52] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 176.

[53] As quoted in Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 25.

[54] Hobson, The German School, 21.

[55] Lambi, The Navy, 6, 9.

[56] As quoted in Dirk Bönker, “Global Politics and Germany’s Destiny ‘from an East Asian Perspective’: Alfred von Tirpitz and the Making of Wilhelmine Navalism,” Central European History 46, no. 1 (March 2013): 73, https://www.jstor.org/stable/43280550.

[57] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 36.

[58] Paul Kennedy, “Tirpitz, England and the Second Navy Law of 1900: A Strategical Critique,” Militärgeschichtliche Mitteilungen, no. 2 (1970): 38, ProQuest.

[59] As quoted in Hobson, The German School, 47.

[60] Holger H. Herwig, “The Failure of German Sea Power, 1914-1945: Mahan, Tirpitz, and Raeder Reconsidered,” The International History Review 10, no. 1 (February 1988): 69, https://doi.org/10.1080/07075332.1988.9640469.

[61] John B. Hattendorf, “The Caird Lecture, 2000: The Anglo‐French Naval Wars (1689–1815) in Twentieth‐Century Naval Thought,” Journal for Maritime Research 3, no. 1 (2001): 55, https://doi.org/10.1080/21533369.2001.9668312.

[62] Lambi, The Navy, 166.

[63] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 38; Carl-Axel Gemzell, Organization, Conflict, and Innovation: A Study of German Naval Strategic Planning, 1888-1940 (Stockholm: Esselte Studium, 1973), 60–61.

[64] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 39.

[65] Lambi, The Navy, 168.

[66] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 36.

[67] Holger H. Herwig, “The German Reaction to the Dreadnought Revolution,” The International History Review 13, no. 2 (May 1991): 278, https://www.jstor.org/stable/40106367.

[68] Hans-Ulrich Wehler, “Bismarck’s Imperialism 1862-1890,” trans. Norman Porter, J. Sheehan, and T. W. Mason, Past & Present, no. 48 (August 1970): 151, https://www.jstor.org/stable/650484.

[69] As quoted in Hans-Ulrich Wehler, “Bismarck’s Imperialism 1862-1890,” trans. Norman Porter, J. Sheehan, and T. W. Mason, Past & Present, no. 48 (August 1970): 152, https://www.jstor.org/stable/650484.

[70] Wehler, 153; Eckart Kehr, “Anglophobia and Weltpolitik,” in Economic Interest, Militarism, and Foreign Policy (Berkeley,CA: University of California Press, 1977), 39, 82.

[71] Eckart Kehr, “Class Struggle and Armament Policy in Imperial Germany,” in Economic Interest, Militarism, and Foreign Policy, ed. Gordon A. Craig, trans. Grete Heinz (Berkeley,CA: University of California Press, 1977), 75.

[72] Eckart Kehr, “The Social and Financial Foundations of Tirpitz’s Naval Propaganda,” in Economic Interest, Militarism, and Foreign Policy (Berkeley,CA: University of California Press, 1977), 83–84, 87, 89.

[73] Gary E. Weir, Building the Kaiser’s Navy: The Imperial Navy Office and German Industry in the von Tirpitz Era (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1992), 53.

[74] Weir, 53; Steinberg, “Review: The Tirpitz Plan,” The Historical Journal 16, no. 1 (March 1973): 199, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2637924.

[75] Weir, Building the Kaiser’s Navy, 31, 109.

[76] Sondhaus, Preparing for Weltpolitik, 216, 218.

[77] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 69.

[78] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 46.

[79] Weir, Building the Kaiser’s Navy, 29, 95.

[80] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 59.

[81] Weir, Building the Kaiser’s Navy, 96, 199; Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 46.

[82] As quoted in Weir, Building the Kaiser’s Navy, 52.

[83] Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 86–87.

[84] Gary E. Weir, “Tirpitz, Technology, and Building U-Boats, 1897-1916,” The International History Review 6, no. 2 (May 1984): 178, https://www.jstor.org/stable/40105369.

[85] Weir, “Tirpitz,” 175.

[86] Alfred von Tirpitz, My Memoirs, by Grand-Admiral von Tirpitz, Volume II (England: Hurst & Blackett, 1919), 571, https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.31210006877748.

[87] Tirpitz, 572; Herwig, Luxury Fleet, 87.

[88] Weir, “Tirpitz,” 184.

The Strategic Competition to Shape Cyberspace

0

Notes:

[1] The White House, Declaration for the Future of the Internet, April 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Declaration-for-the-Future-for-the-Internet_Launch-Event-Signing-Version_FINAL.pdf.

[2] The United Nations, “Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” December 10, 1948, https://www.un.org/en/about-U.S./universal-declaration-of-human-rights.

[3] Megan Stifel, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership on Internet Governance,” The Council on Foreign Relations, February 21, 2017, https://www.cfr.org/report/maintaining-U.S.-leadership-internet-governance.

[4] Elaine Korzak, “UN GGE on Cybersecurity: The End of an Era?,” The Diplomat, July 31, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/un-gge-on-cybersecurity-have-china-and-russia-just-made-cyberspace-less-safe.

[5] Korzak, “UN GGE on Cybersecurity”

[6] Thomas Lynch III ed., Strategic Assessment 2020, National Defense University Press, 2020, https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/SA2020/Strategic-Assessment-2020.pdf, 227.

[7] Brett Schaefer and Danielle Pletka, “Countering China’s Growing Influence at the International Telecommunication Union,” The Heritage Foundation, March 7, 2022, https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/countering-chinas-growing-influence-the-international-telecommunication.

[8] Schaefer, “Countering China’s Growing Influence.”

[9] Brett Schaefer and Danielle Pletka, Countering China’s Growing Influence at the International Telecommunication Union, The Heritage Foundation, March 7, 2022, https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/countering-chinas-growing-influence-the-international-telecommunication.

[10] Justin Ling, “The Election That Saved the Internet From Russia and China,” Wired, October 30, 2022, https://www.wired.com/story/itu-2022-vote-russia-china-open-internet.

[11] John Seaman, “China and the New Geopolitics of Technical Standardization, “Policy Center for the New South, January 2020, https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/seaman_china_standardization_2020.pdf.

[12] Robert Greene and Paul Triolo, “Will China Control the Global Internet Via its Digital Silk Road?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 8. 2020, https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/08/will-china-control-global-internet-via-its-digital-silk-road-pub-81857.

[13] Dan York, “What Is the Splinternet? And Why You Should Be Paying Attention,” Internet Society, March 23, 2022, https://www.internetsociety.org/blog/2022/03/what-is-the-splinternet-and-why-you-should-be-paying-attention.

[14] Adrian Shahbaz, “2022 Freedom on the Net.”

[15] Justin Sherman and Robert Morgus, “Authoritarians Are Exporting Surveillance Tech, And With it Their Vision for the Internet,” Council on Foreign Relations, December 5, 2018, https://www.cfr.org/blog/authoritarians-are-exporting-surveillance-tech-and-it-their-vision-internet.

[16] Michelle Marcus, “Combatting the Seen and Unseen Threats of China’s Digital Silk Road,” Network for Strategic Analysis, September 15, 2022, https://ras-nsa.ca/combatting-the-threats-of-chinas-digital-silk-road.

[17] Marcus, “Combatting the Seen and Unseen.”

[18] Ghalia Kadiri, “In Addis Ababa, the headquarters of the African Union spied on by Beijing,” Le Monde, January 26, 2018,

https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2018/01/26/a-addis-abeba-le-siege-de-l-union-africaine-espionne-par-les-chinois_5247521_3212.html.

[19] Aziz El Yaakoubi, Yomna Ehab, and Jason Neely, Saudi Arabia signs MoU with China’s Huawei -statement, Reuters, December 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-arabia-signs-mou-with-chinas-huawei-statement-2022-12-08.

[20] Telecomreview.com, February 13, 2023, https://www.telecomreview.com/articles/reports-and-coverage/6777-can-jordan-afford-to-rip-and-replace-chinese-equipment-amid-5g-rollout

[21] Congress.gov, “S.Hrg. 117-221 — Training the Department of State’s Workforce for 21st Century Diplomacy,” April 3, 2023, https://www.congress.gov/event/117th-congress/senate-event/LC68067/text.

[22] U.S. Department of Education, “You Belong in STEM,” https://www.ed.gov/stem.

[23]Information obtained by author on U.S. interagency research trip, March 27-31, 2023.

[24]Kristen Eichensehr, “The U.S. Needs a New International Strategy for Cyberspace,” Just Security, November 24, 2014, https://www.justsecurity.org/17729/time-u-s-international-strategy-cyberspace/.

[25] Tomaš Minárik, et al., “11th International Conference on Cyber Conflict: Silent Battle. Proceedings 2019” CCDCOE, June 2019, https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2019/06/CyCon_2019_BOOK.pdf.

[26]Information obtained by author on U.S. interagency research trip, March 27-31, 2023.

[27]Discussion attended by author during U.S. interagency research trip, March 27-31, 2023.

[28] Bart Hogeveen, “The UN norms of responsible state behaviour in cyberspace,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute, February 2022, https://www.aspi.org.au/report/un-norms-responsible-state-behaviour-cyberspace.

[29] Hogeveen, “The UN norms.”

[30] Information obtained by author on U.S. interagency research trip, March 27-31, 2023.

[31] Harriet Moynihan, “The Application of International Law to State Cyberattacks,” Chatham House, December 2, 2019, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2019/12/application-international-law-state-cyberattacks/1-introduction.

[32] Information obtained by author on U.S. interagency research trip, March 27-31, 2023.

[33] Kristen Cordell, “The International Telecommunication Union: The Most Important UN Agency You Have Never Heard Of,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 14, 2020, https://www.csis.org/analysis/international-telecommunication-union-most-important-un-agency-you-have-never-heard.

[34] Melanie Hart and Jordan Link, “There Is a Solution to the Huawei Challenge,” The Center for American Progress, October 14, 2020, https://www.americanprogress.org/article/solution-huawei-challenge.

[35] Megan Stifel, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership on Internet Governance,” Council on Foreign Relations, February 21, 2017, https://www.cfr.org/report/maintaining-U.S.-leadership-internet-governance.

[36] Ling, “The Election That Saved the Internet From Russia and China.”

[37] The White House, “U.S.-EU Joint Statement of the Trade and Technology Council,” December 5, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/12/05/u-s-eu-joint-statement-of-the-trade-and-technology-council.

[38] Megan Stifel “Maintaining U.S. Leadership on Internet Governance.”

[39] Ling Zhu, “A Revisit of the Domain Name System After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Congressional Research Service, March 23, 2022, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11898.

[40] Dina Temple-Raston, “Exclusive: Rounding up a cyberposse for Ukraine,” The World, December 2, 2022, https://theworld.org/stories/2022-12-02/exclusive-rounding-cyberposse-ukraine.

[41] U.S. Department of State Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, “Key Topics,” https://www.state.gov/key-topics-bureau-of-cyberspace-and-digital-policy/#freedom

[42] The White House, Declaration for the Future of the Internet, April 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Declaration-for-the-Future-for-the-Internet_Launch-Event-Signing-Version_FINAL.pdf.

[43] Makada Henry-Nickie, Kwadwo Frimpong, and Hao Sun, “Trends in the Information Technology Sector,” Brookings, March 29, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/research/trends-in-the-information-technology-sector.

[44] Pieter Haeck, “The Netherlands to block export of advanced chips printers to China,” Politico, March 8, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-impose-restrictions-chips-export-to-china-asml.

[45] The White House, “FACT SHEET: CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China,” August 9, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china; and Ina Fried, “U.S. to spend $1.5 billion to jumpstart alternatives to Huawei,” Axios, December 7, 2022, https://www.axios.com/2022/12/07/huawei-alternatives-5g-cellural-equipment-oran.

[46] U.S. Department of Commerce, “Commerce Department Launches CHIPS.gov for CHIPS Program Implementation,” August 25, 2022, https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2022/08/commerce-department-launches-chipsgov-chips-program-implementation.

[47] U.S. Department of Commerce, “Commerce Implements New Export Controls on Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items to the People’s Republic of China (PRC),” Bureau of Industry and Security, October 7, 2022, https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file.

[48] Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, “Fact Sheet: U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council Advances Concrete Action on Transatlantic Cooperation,” December 2022, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2022/december/fact-sheet-us-eu-trade-and-technology-council-advances-concrete-action-transatlantic-cooperation.

[49] Rob Schmitz, “Germany moves toward restrictions on Huawei, as Europe sours on China,” NPR, March 8, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/03/08/1154315168/germany-china-huawei-restrictions.

[50]Anja Manuel, “How to Win the Technology Race with China,” Stanford University, June 18, 2019, https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-win-technology-race-china.

[51] Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” February 6, 2023 https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf.

[52] Ann Mei Chang “Foreign Assistance in the Digital Age,” Brookings, February 1, 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/ChangForeignAssistanceintheDigitalAge.pdf

[53] U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, “Overview,” https://www.dfc.gov/who-we-are/overview.

[54] U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, https://www.dfc.gov/who-we-are.

[55] Shahbaz, “2022 Freedom on the Net.”

Remind Me Again…What Were We Deterring? Cyber Strategy and Why the United States Needed a Paradigm Shift

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Notes:

[1] Fred Kaplan, Dark Territory: The Secret History of Cyber War, (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2016), 2-12.

[2] Angus King et al., United States Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report, (Washington, D.C.: The Cyberspace Solarium Commission, 2020).

[3] Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence, (London: Yale University Press, 2008), 22-79.

[4] Leon Panetta, “Defending the Nation from Cyberattack,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, October 11, 2012, http://www.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID=1728. This speech by the then Secretary of Defense is a good sampler of this approach.

[5] Chris Kubecka and Jack Rhysider, “EP30: Shamoon,” January 22, 2019, in Darknet Diaries, produced by Darknet Diaries, podcast, MP3 audio, 35:11, https://darknetdiaries.com/episode/30/.

[6] Hewlett-Packard, Profiling an Enigma: The Mystery of North Korea’s Cyber Threat Landscape, HP Security Briefing Episode #16, (HP Security Research, 2014), 3.

[7] Tim Maurer, Cyber Mercenaries: The State, Hackers, and Power, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018): 13-14.

[8] Benjamin Jensen, Brandon Valeriano, and Ryan Maness, “Fancy Bears and Digital Trolls: Cyber Strategy with a Russian Twist,” Journal of Strategic Studies 42, no. 2 (2019): 212-234.

[9] Lyu Jinghua, “What Are China’s Cyber Capabilities and Intentions?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 1, 2019, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/04/01/what-are-china-s-cyber-capabilities-and-intentions.

[10] Lucas Kello, “Cyber Legalism: Why It Fails and What To Do About It,” Journal of Cybersecurity (2021): 1-15. Again, a good example of the sentiment in the field.

[11] U.S. Cyber Command PAO, “CYBER 101 – Defend Forward and Persistent Engagement,” United States Cyber Command, October 25, 2022, https://www.cybercom.mil/Media/News/Article/3198878/cyber-101-defend-forward-and-persistent-engagement/.

[12] Jason Healey, “Triggering the Forever War, in Cyberspace,” The Cipher Brief, April 1, 2018, https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/tech/triggering-new-forever-war-cyberspace. Yet again, one sampling.

[13] Michael Fischerkeller and Richard Harknett, “Deterrence Is Not a Credible Strategy for Cyberspace,” Foreign Policy Research Institute (2017): 381-393, https://doi: 10.1016,

[14] Jon Lindsay, “Stuxnet and the Limits of Cyber Warfare,” Security Studies 22, no. 3 (2015): 375-376.

[15] Emily Goldman and Michael Warner, “The Military Instrument in Cyber Strategy,” SAIS Review of International Affairs 41, no. 2 (2021): 56-57.

[16] Brandon Valeriano, et. al., Dyadic Cyber Incident Dataset v 2.0, Harvard Dataverse, September 2017, 2022, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CQOMYV.

[17] Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, (Washington, D.C.: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2023), 28.

[18] U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Strategy, (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2018), 11.

[19] Cyber National Mission Force Public Affairs and NSA Public Affairs, “How U.S. Cyber Command, NSA Are Defending the Midterm Elections: One Team, One Fight,” U.S. Cyber Command, August 25, 2022, https://www.cybercom.mil/Media/News/Article/3139691/how-us-cyber-command-nsa-are-defending-midterms-elections-one-team-one-fight/.

[20] Cyber National Mission Force Public Affairs, “Before the Invasion: Hunt Forward in Ukraine,” U.S. Cyber Command, November 28, 2022, https://www.cybercom.mil/Media/News/Article/3229136/before-the-invasion-hunt-forward-operations-in-ukraine/.

[21] Michael Connell and Sarah Vogler, “Russia’s Approach to Cyber Warfare,” N00014-16-D-5003, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Naval Analyses, 2017), 3-6.

[22] Jinghua, “Chinese Cyber Capabilities and Intentions.”

[23] Michael Kolton, “Interpreting China’s Pursuit of Cyber Sovereignty and Its View on Cyber Deterrence,” The Cyber Defense Review 2, no. 1 (2017): 119-154.