Notes:
[1] Holland, Steve. “Biden Says Any Russian Movement into Ukraine Will Be Considered Invasion.” Reuters. January 20, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-says-any-russian-movement-into-ukraine-will-be-considered-invasion-2022-01-20.
[2] Lieven, Anatol. “For Years, Putin Didn’t Invade Ukraine. What Made Him Finally Snap in 2022?” The Guardian. February 23, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/24/vladimir-putin-invade-ukraine-2022-russia.
[3] Schott, Jeffrey J. “Biden Says Any Russian Movement into Ukraine Will Be Considered Invasion.” Peterson Institute for International Economics. February 1, 2022. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/will-tough-us-sanctions-deter-russian-aggression-ukraine.
[4] Cancian, Mark F. “Putin’s Invasion Was Immoral but Not Irrational.” Center for Strategic & International Studies. May 10, 2022. https://www.csis.org/analysis/putins-invasion-was-immoral-not-irrational.
[5] Wilson, Peter A., and William Courtney. “How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected.” The RAND Blog. RAND Corporation, January 7, 2023. https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/01/how-the-war-in-ukraine-could-end-sooner-than-expected.html.
[6] Landay, Johnathon. “Ukrainians Celebrate Soldiers Retaking Kherson, Russia’s Latest Defeat.” Reuters. November 11, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-urges-ukraine-be-open-talks-with-russia-washington-post-2022-11-06/.
[7] “The Impact of Sanctions and Export Controls on the Russian Federation.” U.S. Department of State. October 20, 2022. https://www.state.gov/the-impact-of-sanctions-and-export-controls-on-the-russian-federation/.
[8] Barnes, Julian E. “Russia Is Buying North Korean Artillery, According to U.S. Intelligence.” The New York Times. September 5, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html.
[9] O’Toole, Brian, and Daniel Fried. “Sanctions Alone Won’t Defeat Russia in Ukraine. But They’re Having a Bigger Impact than It Might Seem.” Atlantic Council. February 23, 2023. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/sanctions-alone-wont-defeat-russia-in-ukraine-but-theyre-having-a-bigger-impact-than-it-might-seem/.
[10] Hanousek, Jan, and Matěj Bělín. “Making Sanctions Bite: The EU–Russian Sanctions of 2014.” Center of Economic Policy Research. April 29, 2019. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/making-sanctions-bite-eu-russian-sanctions-2014.
[11] Some Russian banks and companies were kicked out of SWIFT in 2014 after Russia’s invasion of Crimea; “Russia and Iran Launch Payment System as an Alternative to Swift.” Middle East Eye. January 30, 2023. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-and-iran-launch-payment-system-alternative-swift; Gamino, Lazaro, and Ana Swanson. “How Russia Pays for War.” The New York Times. October 30, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/30/business/economy/russia-trade-ukraine-war.html; McElwee, Lily, Maria Snegovaya, Alexandra Chopenko, and Tina Dolbaia. “How Russia Pays for War.” Center for Strategic & International Studies. March 28, 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/xi-goes-moscow-marriage-inconvenience.
[12] “EU Sanctions against Russia Explained.” Council of the European Union. March 15, 2023. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/.; “FACT SHEET: United States, G7 and EU Impose Severe and Immediate Costs on Russia.” The White House. April 6, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/06/fact-sheet-united-states-g7-and-eu-impose-severe-and-immediate-costs-on-russia/.
[13] “Targeting Key Sectors, Evasion Efforts, and Military Supplies, Treasury Expands and Intensifies Sanctions Against Russia.” U.S. Department of the Treasury. February 24, 2023. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1296; Gilman, Azure. “Russia’s Economy Is on Track to Lose $190 Billion as Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Becomes a Slow Motion Financial Crisis.” Fortune. February 17, 2023. https://fortune.com/2023/02/17/economy-economy-losing-190-billion-putin-ukraine-invasion/; “UK and Coalition Partners Announce Price Caps on Russian Oil Products.” Government of the United Kingdom. February 3, 2023. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-coalition-partners-announce-price-caps-on-russian-oil-products
[14] “FACT SHEET: Disrupting and Degrading – One Year of U.S. Sanctions on Russia and Its Enablers.” U.S. Department of the Treasury. February 24, 2023. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1298.
[15] Other sources listed this as 40 percent of Russia’s economy in 2018: “Russia’s Economy Is Becoming Heavily Dependent on Hydrocarbons.” Warsaw Institute. February 24, 2020. https://warsawinstitute.org/russias-economy-becoming-heavily-dependent-hydrocarbons/; “Share of the Oil and Gas Industry in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Russia from 1st Quarter 2017 to 3rd Quarter 2022.” Statista. March 23, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1322102/gdp-share-oil-gas-sector-russia/; https://www.iea.org/articles/energy-fact-sheet-why-does-russian-oil-and-gas-matter
[16] “Energy Fact Sheet: Why Does Russian Oil and Gas Matter?” International Energy Agency. March 21, 2022. https://www.iea.org/articles/energy-fact-sheet-why-does-russian-oil-and-gas-matter; “Oil Market and Russian Supply.” International Energy Agency. February 2, 2022. https://www.iea.org/reports/russian-supplies-to-glbal-energy-markets/oil-market-and-russian-supply-2.
[17] Korsunskaya, Darya, and Jake Cordell. “Western Sanctions Push Russia’s Energy Revenues to Lowest since 2020.” Reuters. February 3, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/western-sanctions-push-russias-energy-revenues-lowest-level-since-2020-2023-02-03/.
[18] For instance, Russia’s automobile industry, a multi-billion USD export-reliant industry employing millions of Russian workers, has suffered an estimated 97 percent loss of its value by the end of 2022 since the war’s start: “Russia’s Car Manufacturing Collapses by 97% in May.” The Moscow Times. June 30, 2022. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/30/russias-car-manufacturing-collapses-by-97-in-may-a78151; “Infographic – Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy.” Council of the European Union. March 17, 2023. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/.
[19] The Russian Ruble has remained stable because of various capital controls placed on it by the Russian Central Bank, many of which are unsustainable and which create inflationary pressures within the economy: McCabe, Caitlin. “Russia’s Economy Is Tanking but the Ruble Soared. Here’s Why.” The Wall Street Journal. May 26, 2022. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-economy-is-tankingbut-the-ruble-is-soaring-11653559916.
[20] For example, Russia has increased the transport of natural gas to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline, among many other projects: Rosen, Phil. “Explainer: Does China Need More Russian Gas via the Power-of-Siberia 2 Pipeline?” Reuters. March 2, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/does-china-need-more-russian-gas-via-power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-2023-03-22.
[21] China, for instance, only imported 15 percent of its petroleum and 10 percent of its natural gas from Russia in 2022, with the remaining needs being met by the Middle East and other nearby regions: “China: Executive Summary.” Energy International Agency. August 8, 2022. https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN.
[22] Rosen, Phil. “Russia Is Offering to Discount Its Oil by as Much as 30% for Asian Buyers as the G7 Pushes Its Price Cap.” Business Insider. August 24, 2022. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-discount-asia-buyers-price-cap-sanctions-china-india-2022-8.
[23] “How Europe Can Cut Natural Gas Imports from Russia Significantly within a Year.” International Energy Agency. March 3, 2022. https://www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-year.
[24] Horton, Jake, and Daniele Palumbo. “Russia Sanctions: What Impact Have They Had on Its Oil and Gas Exports?” BBC News. January 26, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451.
[25] Reed, Stanley. “Why Natural Gas Prices in Europe Are Suddenly Plunging.” The New York Times. November 10, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/business/europe-gas-prices-winter.html.
[26] Only the International Money Fund forecasts an increase in Russia’s GDP. Two other major global finance organizations predict a further contraction of up to 5 percent in 2023; Much of Russia’s oil revenue in 2022 occurred prior to the implementation of a price cap, as well as through sanctions evasions by Russian firms through temporary financial loopholes and capital restrictions and foreign reserve sales by Russia’s Central Bank.
[27] Snegovaya, Maria, Tina Dolbaia, Nick Fenton, and Max Bergmann. “Russia Sanctions at One Year.” Center for Strategic & International Studies. February 23, 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-sanctions-one-year.
[28] Gilman, Azure. “Russia’s Economy Is on Track to Lose $190 Billion as Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Becomes a Slow Motion Financial Crisis.” Fortune. February 17, 2023. https://fortune.com/2023/02/17/economy-economy-losing-190-billion-putin-ukraine-invasion/.
[29] Russia is expected to lose $190 billion by 2026. The GDP of Ukraine in 2021 was $200 billion.; Williams, Michael J. “How Putin’s Fear of Democracy Convinced Him to Invade Ukraine.” Atlantic Council. March 6, 2023. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/how-putins-fear-of-democracy-convinced-him-to-invade-ukraine/.
[30] O’Toole, Brian, and Daniel Fried. “Sanctions Alone Won’t Defeat Russia in Ukraine. But They’re Having a Bigger Impact than It Might Seem.” Atlantic Council. February 23, 2023. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/sanctions-alone-wont-defeat-russia-in-ukraine-but-theyre-having-a-bigger-impact-than-it-might-seem/.; Sonnenfeld, Jeffrey, and Steven Tian. “Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding.” Foreign Policy. August 1, 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/.
[31] Snegovaya, Maria, Tina Dolbaia, Nick Fenton, and Max Bergmann. “Russia Sanctions at One Year.” Center for Strategic & International Studies. February 23, 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-sanctions-one-year.
[32] Everett, Burgess. “McCain: Russia Is a ‘Gas Station’.” Politico. March 26, 2014. https://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/john-mccain-russia-gas-station-105061.
